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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."