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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger & A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent of him to remember the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.